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Repeat Of April 2019? Bitcoin Rally Shows Similar Break Above These Key Levels

On-chain data shows Bitcoin has broken above these three key levels in a manner reminiscent of the rally in April 2019.

Bitcoin Breakout Shows Initial Similarities To April 2019 Rally

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, BTC has broken above the three investor cost-basis levels for the first time since the COVID-19 crash and the 2018-2019 bear market. The relevant indicator here is the “realized price,” to understand the concept of the “realized cap” it needs to be looked at first.

The realized cap is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that assumes that each coin in the circulating supply has its real value as the price at which it was last moved rather than the current BTC price (which the normal market cap uses for its calculation).

Now, from the realized cap, a “realized price” can be obtained by dividing the metric by the total number of coins in circulation. Since the realized cap accounted for the prices at which investors bought their coins (which is to say, their cost basis), the realized price can be thought of as the average acquisition price in the market.

This means that if the normal price of Bitcoin dips below this indicator, the average holder can be assumed to have entered a state of loss. While this realized price is the average cost basis for the entire market, the metric can also be defined for only specific groups of investors.

The BTC market can be divided into two primary cohorts: short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). Investors who bought their coins within the last 155 days fall into the STHs, while those holding them since before that threshold are included in the LTHs.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price for the entire market, as well as for these two holder groups separately, over the last few years:

As the above graph shows, Bitcoin had broken above the STH cost basis and the entire market’s realized price earlier in the latest rally, suggesting that the average STH and the overall average investor was back in profit.

In the most recent continuation to the rally, the crypto has now surged above the LTH cost basis of $22,400. This means that the average investor in every segment is now in the green.

The last time Bitcoin displayed a breakout above all these levels was following the black swan COVID-19 crash, which had briefly taken the coin below these prices.

A similar trend also formed in April 2019, when the bear market of that cycle ended, and a bullish transition took place. Though it’s early to tell right now, this similarity between the two rallies could hint about the path that the current one might also end up following.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $22,900, up 8% in the last week.

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Crypto

Shiba Inu Observes Highest Rise In Burn Rate – Is This Normal?

SHIB token burn rates are seemingly rising on the Shiba Inu network. The current number of Shiba Inu burn trackers is quite surprising. However, data shows it is due to the degenerative performance of the SHIB burning machine.

On-chain data shows that the SHIB burn rate observed a massive 1682.07% increase over the past 24 hours. That is the highest percentage rise in the burn rate on the SHIB network in the past few months.

Why Is SHIB Burn Rate Increasing?

In detail, the number of burnt tokens on the Shiba Inu network did not exceed 1 million SHIB on January 26. Yesterday’s amount was one of the lowest numbers of assets developers has burned on the network. So, the seeming spike in burn rate could be due to a default in the SHIB burning machine yesterday.

According to analysts, this percentage spike wasn’t triggered by increased network activity. Also, it didn’t represent a large number of actually burnt tokens. 

Token burns help to reduce the number of coins in circulation. It helps increase an asset’s scarcity and possibly boost the token’s price when increased supply pushes it down.

For instance, on January 17, the SHIB token burn surged by 613% within 24 hours, and the coin broke the bearish traders’ expectations, rising above 20% on the day. However, a surge in price did not accompany the recent rise in the token burn rate.

Also, some SHIB whale activities indicate that top investors have lost faith in the meme coin as many whales keep moving chunks of Shiba Inu positions on exchanges. 

3,312,307,240,798 #SHIB (38,257,148 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallethttps://t.co/0mdLkwpPQQ

— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) January 26, 2023

This could mean that short-term traders don’t believe the asset couldn’t rise above the resistance level, helping them earn profit. 

New SHIB Whales Emerge – What’s Next?

While some whales sell off their tokens, a new address is buying the dip, accumulating large amounts of SHIB tokens, and maybe awaiting the next bull market. Data shows that a new crypto wallet became a Shiba Inu whale address on Thursday, January 26, 2022.

The new wallet became a whale address after receiving 3.3 billion SHIB worth about $38.9 million. Etherscan revealed that the sending address moved funds from different wallets before transferring the tokens to the receiver, now the newest SHIB whale. This move further confirms our suspicion that smaller investors are giving up their positions.

According to the blockchain whale tracker, Whale Alert, the wallet also received 1 billion PAW tokens a few minutes after sweeping the SHIB token. With the current balance, the new whale is now the world’s 30th-largest SHIB holder.

This recent accumulation came after the world’s 26th-largest SHIB holder swept 150 billion tokens into its wallet. The token sweep occurred through four transaction clusters within three hours on January 23.

So while short-term investors might be selling their positions due to falling SHIB prices, some could be accumulating in anticipation of future gains from the upcoming Shibarium launch.

Shiba Inu is currently trading at $0.00001188 with a 24-hour increase of 1.28% and a 7-day price surge of 0.2%. In addition, the meme coin has seen a 14-day price surge of 22.1% and a 30-day rally of 41.4%.

Featured Image From Pixabay Kevin_Y, Chart From Tradingview

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Crypto

AAVE Seeks Proposal To Clear Itself Of Bad Debt – Can It Overcome These Obstacles?

The lending platform AAVE has been enjoying positive news lately. According to reports, AAVE has passed a governance proposal that would eradicate all bad debt it accumulated when Avraham Eisenberg, orchestrator of the Mango Markets exploit, targeted the platform’s Ethereum V2 liquidity pool back in November 2022. 

However, the governance token of the platform, AAVE, has not responded either positively or negatively. According to data from CoinGecko, the token registered losses in the daily and weekly time frames. But these losses are too miniscule to revert the token’s gains from the start of the year. 

 With the launch of AAVE’s V3 on its mainnet, the crypto might be in a position to tally new highs if the situation permits it. 

The Gist Of The Proposal & On-Chain Developments

Based on the proposal, the token has over 2,677,749 units of CRV in debt on its Ethereum V2 CRV reserve. This is worth, at the date of the proposal, over $2.5 million. The proposal would use V2’s stablecoin reserve to buy the necessary number of units of CRV to pay the debt.

This obviously was accepted by the community positively, being implemented immediately by January 25th. This would reverse the damage of the exploit attempt, proving the liquidity of the protocol. 

The deployment of AAVE’s V3 on Ethereum was also implemented. According to DefiLlama, the crypto is in the top 4 among all platforms. AAVE V3, the Ethereum pool deployment, has over $526.52 million total value locked. 

At $86.02, What’s In Store For AAVE? 

The token is currently consolidating around the $85.8 support range. This could be a sign that the token still has room to regain lost ground from 2022’s bear market. However, this can only be achieved if the token closes with a green candle to continue AAVE’s rally when the year started. 

Investors and traders should target the token’s current resistance at $90.15. If the bulls can consolidate at the token’s present support, we can see an upward push towards $94.70. 

Investors should also monitor the token’s correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum as these would have a big influence on its price movement in the short to medium term.

As these major cryptocurrencies retest their crucial resistances, a breakthrough by either one or both of these coins would boost AAVE’s momentum to regain lost ground. 

With this in mind, investors and traders should exercise caution in the short to medium term as the token can still be clawed by the bears to revert back to $78.65.

Featured image by Kanalcoin.com

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Crypto

Litecoin (LTC) Displays Consolidation – Can We Expect A Reversal Soon?

The Litecoin price has shown considerable recovery ever since it reached its bottom in December 2022. LTC secured almost 50% appreciation in January this year. Currently, however, the altcoin has witnessed a price pullback and is consolidating on its daily chart.

Over the last 24 hours, the Litecoin price moved down by 0.3%, which signified a range-bound movement. The altcoin also lost close to 3% of its market value. The technical outlook of Litecoin pointed towards bullish momentum as demand for the altcoin remained high on the daily chart.

Accumulation also reflected the same. Price noted a decline as LTC receded from the overbought zone. Buyers still have the upper hand on the chart.

A continued fall in accumulation will cause bears to secure Litecoin’s price action. That momentum would continue for the upcoming week, causing LTC to fall below its nearest support level. At the time of writing, LTC was trading 78% below its all-time high set in 2021.

Litecoin Price Analysis: One-Day Chart

LTC was trading at $88.11 at the time of writing. The coin has pierced through several resistance lines over the past several weeks but has failed to hold on to the momentum. LTC met with two rigid resistance levels before it started to move south again.

The two important resistance lines for the coin stood at $90 and $92. Immediate resistance stood at $90. If demand for the altcoin remains steady, then LTC might attempt to breach the $90 price mark.

On the flipside, the nearest support line for the Litecoin price stood at $86, and a continued price correction will force LTC to fall below the $86 price mark and settle at $82. The amount of LTC traded in the last session was red, indicating a fall in buyers.

Technical Analysis

The altcoin has been hovering in the overbought region for several weeks now, and at the moment there is a slight fall in demand for Litecoin. The Relative Strength Index stood a little below the 60-mark after it noted a recent downtick indicating that demand was shrinking.

A reading close to the 60-mark, however, signifies that buyers outnumbered sellers. In accordance with that, LTC price shot past the 20-Simple Moving Average (SMA) line as buyers were driving the price momentum in the market.

The coin was also above the 50-SMA (yellow) and 200-SMA (green) lines, indicating increased bullishness.

Concerning the fall in buying pressure, the LTC chart displayed a sell signal on the one-day chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which depicts market momentum, underwent a bearish crossover and formed red signal bars tied to sell signals.

This could also imply that the price will fall in the coming trading sessions. The Parabolic SAR, the indicator that reads the trend and change in price momentum, was still positive. The dotted lines were below the candlesticks, suggesting that the LTC price was still positive.

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