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Bitcoin Capitulation Deepens As aSOPR Metric Plunges To Dec 2018 Lows

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin aSOPR metric has dropped to lows not seen since December 2018, suggesting that holder capitulation is deepening.

Bitcoin aSOPR Plummets To Lows Not Observed Since Almost 4 Years Ago

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post,  the current capitulation is deeper than during both the 2015 bear and the COVID crash.

The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (or the SOPR in short) is an indicator that tells us whether Bitcoin investors are selling at a loss or at a profit right now.

When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the overall market is realizing some amount of profit currently.

On the other hand, the indicator having values below the threshold implies the average holder is selling at a loss at the moment.

Naturally, the SOPR being exactly equal to 1 suggests the investors as a whole are just breaking even right now.

A modified version of this metric is the “Adjusted SOPR” (aSOPR), which doesn’t take into account any selling of coins that was done within 1 hour of the purchase of said coins. By doing so, the indicator filters any noise from the data that wouldn’t have had any significant consequences on the market.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin aSOPR since the year 2014:

The value of the metric seems to have seen a heavy drawdown in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin aSOPR has observed a rapid downwards trajectory below the 1-level recently. This means that BTC investors have been selling their coins at huge losses.

The indicator’s value is now the lowest it has been since the December of 2018, when the bear market of the previous cycle saw its bottom.

These current levels of the metric are also lower than they were during both the 2015 bear market bottom as well as the COVID black swan crash.

Plummets in the aSOPR like the one now indicate that there is widespread capitulation going in the Bitcoin market. Such deep loss realizations have historically lead to the formation of lows in the price as they result in a shift in coins from weak hands to strong hands.

Since the indicator is currently at historical lows, it’s possible the market is approaching a bottom for this cycle. However, it’s worth noting that the 2018 bottom saw even deeper values than now, so it’s uncertain whether the current cycle will also see similar lows or not, before the true bottom is in.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16.5k, up 1% in the last week.

BTC has shown strong uptrend in the last two days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from 愚木混株 cdd20 on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin At $1,000: Looking Back At Nine Years Of Bull Run

If the first part of the above headline about Bitcoin price had your heart pumping, it might be time to reduce the amount of leverage you are using.

No, we aren’t calling for BTC to reach a target of $1,000 – we are instead looking back and celebrating the nine-year anniversary of the first time Bitcoin breached above $1,000.

Nine Years Ago: BTC Breaks Above $1,000

Bitcoin is now in the midst of its fourth ever bear market and currently trading at a price of around $16,000 per coin. After the dramatic fall from $69,000 in late 2021 to current levels, sentiment has taken a beating. It isn’t unusual to see targets on crypto Twitter for $1,000 BTC in the days ahead.

Today, however, we aren’t as focused on future targets for the top cryptocurrency, but the long journey Bitcoin has had from when it first passed $1,000.

Nine years ago from yesterday, on November 27, 2013, BTC breached above $1,000. The level proved to be significant at the time, with BTCUSD trading above $1,000 for less than ten days before the 2014-2015 bear market started.

From that point on, it was more than 1000 days before Bitcoin passed $1,000 again. But when it passed it again, Bitcoin became a household name.

Bitcoin breached $1,000 exactly nine years ago yesterday | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Where To Next: $1K or $1M Per Bitcoin?

$1,000 per BTC was significant for several reasons. It was a large, rounded number in US dollars, but 1 BTC was almost exactly the same price of an ounce of gold at the time.

After breaching above $1,000 a second time, Bitcoin went on to climb just under 2,000% to nearly $20,000 per coin. Today, five years later, BTC is below the 2017 bull market peak.

Related Reading: Bitcoin At $1M By 2030: Why Cathie Wood Remains Confident In Bold Bet

From the $1,000 milestone to current prices at around $16,000 per BTC, the top cryptocurrency still has more than 16,000% ROI its held onto. From its inception, it has gained more than 150,000,000% cumulatively.

Despite this, there are equal calls for a revisit to the $1,000 level as there are for Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin, making BTC the most interesting speculative asset of all-time.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

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Crypto Fraud in UK Claims 32% to £226M amid Recession

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Crypto Fraud in UK Claims 32% to £226M amid Recession

Many UK residents are currently struggling to survive in the wake of a recession that is taking a toll on all and sundry, leading to a rise in crypto fraud. In hard times like this, criminals seek to exploit people and reap their funds. Reports have shown that crypto fraud in the UK grew 32% over the past year. According to data from the UK police unit Action Fraud, about £226 million ($273 million) was lost in crypto fraud over the past year.

UK Crypto Fraud Increases amid Recession

The recession in the UK is getting worse by the day, with readings suggesting that the economy is shrinking at a 0.4% quarterly rate. A major survey also added that the economic downturn could linger into the coming year. While S&P Global’s poll places the economic fall at a 0.4% quarterly rate, Gloom said it was widespread. There are also expectations that new businesses may stumble to the point of no recovery.

The cost of living has increased amid the recession, and many are now vulnerable to fraudsters. A forensic accountant at Pinsent Masons, Hinesh Shah, told Financial Times on Monday:

“Whenever times are tough, fraudsters always seek to prey on less experienced investors by promising huge returns.”

There have been major discussions on crypto in the UK and the presence of crypto firms in the country. The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said in a report that crypto fraud is tied to increased cyber crimes. The agency noted 5,568 suspected crypto scams between the 1st of April 2021 and the 31st of March this year. The reports increased 36% YoY, and the UK financial watchdog intensified its commitment to warning consumers of the risks of crypto investments. There are currently 39 crypto-asset firms legally operating in the US, with 246 running without undergoing necessary procedures. The FCA’s executive director of markets, Sarah Pritchard, stated:

“Setting high standards and acting quickly to crack down on problem firms will help ensure market and consumer confidence, supporting the integrity and growth of UK financial services.”

With the recent happenings in the UK, crypto fraud is almost inevitable not to record crypto fraud cases. Illicit activities involving cryptocurrencies make major news headlines, and law enforcement has seized crypto assets worth millions due to criminal acts.

About a month ago, UK lawmakers agreed to legally see crypto as a regulated financial instrument. Parliamentarian Andrew Griffit proposed that crypto should be regulated in the country. He added that this would not mean that it would have preferential treatment. Instead, it would help the UK’s regulatory framework for financial assets.

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Crypto Fraud in UK Claims 32% to £226M amid Recession

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Genesis Bankruptcy by EOY Now At 59% – Sentiment Of Bitcoin Investors Pivots

A possible Chapter 11 bankruptcy of Genesis Trading and parent company DCG is still depressing the sentiment on the Bitcoin market. Genesis last commented on Twitter on November 16. Parent company DCG last spoke out on November 18 via the social media platform.

Investors, however, seem to take a rather positive view of the silence. As recent data from the world’s largest decentralized prediction market Polymarket shows market participants now estimate the probability of a Genesis insolvency at only 59% by the end of year (EOY).

The peak value was 81%. Thus, the narrative appears to have pivoted to the extent that the problem is fixable for Genesis and DCG. Expert opinions currently suggest that it is more of a liquidity shortage than a solvency problem for DCG.

Source: Twitter

Bitcoin Experts Warn Against False Panic

Bitcoin OG Samson Mow explained that the DCG group has real assets and income-generating businesses, and the problem is primarily a liquidity shortage.

According to Mow, Genesis and DCG have enough assets to pay debts, they’re just not available in cash. The worst-case scenario, a bankruptcy of Genesis and DCG “seems unlikely” for him.

Since DCG has high revenues and assets, insolvency of Genesis would not be the end of the parent company. To that extent, Mow considers the theory that Grayscale could be liquidated and the 634,000 BTC could hit the open market also “an unlikely outcome.”

DCG still has a number of good assets, including Grayscale, which generates around $500 to $800 million a year in management fees. According to Mow, the likely outcome is a restructuring or an outright buyout by a bigger player.

Ryan Selkis, founder of Messari, currently strikes a similar tone. He also warns against scaremongering that DCG can simply “dump” its GBTC shares. “That’s part of their liquidity crisis, but also net good news for GBTC shareholders and FUD fighting,” Selkis said.

The reason is that Grayscale has to follow strict rules. Thus, DCG cannot simply sell its nearly $800 million worth of GBTC shares because it is not an ETF as desired but a listed vehicle that falls under Rule 144.

Because of this, there are two important restrictions. DCG must make public a notice of proposed sales. Furthermore, there are caps on sales of 1% of outstanding shares or weekly trading volume.

Given GBTC has a daily volume of ~4.5mm shares that works out to quarterly cap on sales of 2.5mm shares ($23mm / quarter) under the trading test and 6.9mm shares ($62mm / quarter) under the asset test.

If Grayscale were to start forced sales, it would send the price of GBTC further down, and the discount would continue to grow. According to Selkis, this liquidity problem makes it much more likely that DCG-Genesis will refinance using GBTC as collateral.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $16,157. Thus, the next important resistance is currently at $16,310, while the support at $16,050 is of major concern.

Bitcoin price, 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

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